BUD going back on Big Board
Written on September 14, 2009
So let’s say you have about $45 sloshing around in your piggy bank.
Should you invest in Anheuser-Busch InBev?
For a while, the question of whether U.S. investors should buy into Anheuser-Busch InBev was basically moot. When InBev bought Anheuser-Busch last year, A-B’s shares and the BUD symbol were taken off the New York Stock Exchange.
But since July 1 — thanks to the Belgian company’s American depositary receipt program — U.S. individual investors have been able to hitch their wagons onto the world’s biggest brewer.
The ADRs, each representing one share of Anheuser-Busch InBev common stock, have been trading in the over-the-counter market under the ticker symbol AHBIY. The ADR finished Friday at $45.45.
On Wednesday, the brewer plans to list these securities on the New York Stock Exchange. The new ticker symbol? "BUD," hearkening back to Anheuser-Busch’s historic symbol.
Americans can now easily invest in Anheuser-Busch InBev without undertaking a complex cross-border transaction.
Which factors should you consider while mulling an investment in Anheuser-Busch InBev?
There is the uncertainty of global beer sales, which have dropped as the recession changes spending habits. There is a big load of debt from the takeover of Anheuser-Busch.
But there is also InBev’s proven track record of ferreting out costs and posting higher profits. And there is its unprecedented power in the global beer marketplace, where the company controls about 25 percent of sales.
The mega-brewer’s stock price has bounced back since hitting a five-year low in November, right after InBev completed its purchase of Anheuser-Busch.
Back then, investors were spooked by the $52 billion debt InBev was using to buy Anheuser-Busch in the midst of a credit-market mayhem.
Those fears have largely subsided, thanks to the brewer’s ability to generate cash and repay portions of the debt in a timely manner.
Its stock price has more than tripled since hitting that five-year low in late November. Anheuser-Busch InBev’s shares have outpaced London-based competitor SABMiller and Dutch brewer Heineken since the recession began in December 2007.
Although Anheuser-Busch InBev’s euro-denominated shares are down 20 percent from two years ago, most analysts say they are optimistic about the company’s prospects.
"This is a great company in a great industry," said analyst Wim Hoste of KBC Securities in Belgium.
Hoste cited the stability that comes from the company’s mix of mature and emerging markets, as well its ability to generate loads of cash in "almost any economic climate."
Morningstar analyst Ann Gilpin also calls Anheuser-Busch InBev "the best-run brewer in the world."
But Gilpin adds a key caveat: Among its global peers, Anheuser-Busch InBev is "also probably the riskiest."
Anheuser-Bush InBev is one of the most debt-heavy international brewers. That leverage spurred Gilpin to argue that InBev overpaid for Anheuser-Busch. She said earlier this summer that she "wouldn’t touch A-B InBev with a 10-foot pole."
She reiterated that view in a note to clients last month, arguing that if InBev does not proceed delicately, it could do more harm than good by slicing too deep in its new U.S. division. That could damage revenue, profit and consumers’ perceptions of the company, she said.
"We are cautious of what we believe is a potentially excessive cost-cutting program in the U.S.," Gilpin wrote.
But Hoste and others professed to being "not too worried" about the debt situation.
"I think you’ll see a nice gradual reimbursement of the debt in the coming years," with little danger of default or running afoul of debt covenants, he said.
SELLING BEER IN BAD TIMES
The company’s beer sales — along with those of competitors such as SABMiller, Heineken and Molson Coors — have been clipped by the global economic downturn. As penny-pinching consumers continue to trim purchases or shift to cheaper beers, the trend is not expected to improve much until next year free credit report and score.
In response, mega-brewers are cutting costs and raising prices to ride out the storm. So far, drinkers have not revolted from the higher prices.
That allowed Anheuser-Busch InBev to squeeze more profits from smaller beer volume — liquid sold — in its second quarter.
Despite the tough environment, the brewer’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization jumped 18.5 percent, besting expectations.
Rob Mann, consumer goods analyst at Liberum Capital in London, called the company’s profit margins "pretty stunning stuff."
But this is not just a recent development. Before it took over Anheuser-Busch, InBev was renowned for its ability to squeeze out costs and expand profit margins — a trait that largely came from its Brazilian wing, AmBev. Slashing costs is part of the company’s DNA.
"They are very, very impressive cost cutters, these Brazilians," said Gerard Rijk, an analyst with ING in the Netherlands.
The company’s famous (or infamous) Zero-Based Budgeting — which requires managers to justify every expense from scratch every year — cuts millions of dollars every year.
The policy is "about reinventing the cost basis of a company," said Rijk. "Do we need this office? Do we need this chair? In a perfect world, how many people do we need?"
Cost cutting has been a blow to St. Louis, where more than 1,000 employees and contractors lost their jobs after Anheuser-Busch was sold.
But it’s impressive to analysts. Anheuser-Busch set a goal to strip out $1 billion in costs this year. Given that it’s already slashed $610 million of costs in the first half of the year, the $1 billion target is starting to look conservative, said Hoste.
Meanwhile, the company has reaped $3.6 billion from selling breweries in South Korea, packaging plants in the U.S. and stakes in a Chinese brewing group. It aims to sell a total of $7 billion worth of "non-core" assets to help trim debt.
The upcoming sale of breweries spread across central and eastern Europe has been widely rumored.
Anheuser-Busch InBev has suddenly become overwhelmingly a Western Hemisphere company. It is deeply entrenched in Brazil, as well as in the stable and profitable U.S. market, where it controls about half the beer industry’s sales.
About three-quarters of the company’s business now comes from this side of the globe — especially Brazil and the U.S. InBev executives who now rule Anheuser-Busch are "very good at managing businesses that have big powerful market shares," said Mann.
Along with other multinationals, Anheuser-Busch InBev has struggled mightily in Russia and the U.K., where it does not have dominant positions.
But "when it comes down to basics," Mann said, "these guys basically care about three markets: Brazil, China and the U.S." All three are in the top five of the world’s largest beer markets.
What about the intangibles? Morningstar’s Gilpin has long warned of a culture clash between InBev and Anheuser-Busch. Those fears were given more fuel when InBev’s takeover was followed hard by rapid changes at Anheuser-Busch, such as quick and dramatic layoffs in St. Louis and demands that suppliers wait as long as 120 days to be paid.
"There was some fat to be cut, but some of the choices they’ve made are pretty risky. The cultures are so different," Gilpin said. "The thing that’s so important to Anheuser-Busch is brands. And that is a very delicate thing to manage."
Gilpin pointed out that several high-profile marketing executives left Anheuser-Busch in the wake of InBev’s takeover. Will the regime change eventually affect drinkers’ views of the company? Only time will tell.
"There are a lot of years of experience behind the people that left," she said. "That is difficult to replace."
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