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It helped Elizabeth Poelker buy her house.

It probably helped Paul Medler sell his.

But is the $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers really helping the economy all that much? Enough to warrant extending it for another year, at an estimated cost of $15 billion? Enough to maybe even expand it to $15,000 apiece, for everyone?

That’s a question Congress is wrestling with these days, as the program starts to near its Nov. 30 closing date, and the real estate industry ramps up a full-throated campaign to keep the credits flowing. It’s unclear at this point what will be decided.

Nearly everyone agrees that the credits have helped keep the housing market afloat during a tough time. After they were enacted as part of the $787 billion federal stimulus Congress passed in February, existing home sales rose for four straight months, before dipping in August. The rate of sales is up 12 percent since March, according to the National Association of Realtors.

About 1.4 million people have already claimed the credit on their taxes, according to the IRS, with probably more awaiting paperwork or delaying until they file in the spring.

And, along with low prices and historically low interest rates, real estate agents say the credits are sparking interest in home-buying.

"There’s no question it’s had a positive impact on our business," said Jim Dohr, president of Coldwell Banker Gundaker, which has 25 offices in the St. Louis region. That’s especially true at lower price points. Coldwell’s business is up 23 percent from last year on homes sold for less than $100,000 and 16 percent for homes sold for $150,000 or less.

"Much of the action in our business is at the lower end, and it’s really being fueled by the first-time tax credit," Dohr said.

What is less clear is how many of those sales would have happened anyway.

Prices and interest rates are low, after all. And people still need a place to live.

Out of a projected 1.8 million sales that will use the tax credit this year, economists estimate that between 350,000 and 400,000 would not have happened without it. And a recent survey commissioned by real estate tracking firm Zillow found that, if the credit is extended another year, it would be a major deciding factor for 18 percent of first-time homebuyers — spurring an additional 334,000 sales in all.

That’s nothing to sneeze at, said Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries. But at $15 billion, it works out to almost $45,000 for every sale generated.

"It’s an expensive program," he said. "For every five homes, four were going to get purchased anyway."

But there’s still that other one — people such as Poelker.

She’s 25 and works at an accounting firm. Her lease in Maryland Heights was coming up this summer, and she had grown tired of renting but didn’t think she could afford a down payment. When the tax credit passed, she started looking.

Soon, she found a nice townhouse in Manchester, put in an offer, and closed in June.

"It really helped me make it work," said Poelker, who noted that her brother and a friend had also used the tax credit to buy houses. "I probably would have purchased in the next couple of years, but it helped me do it sooner."

Still, that raises another question about the tax credit. Is it just borrowing sales from the future?

Skeptics point to Cash for Clunkers, the government-funded program to help spur auto sales. After a surge of car-buying in July and August, September is expected to be car dealers’ worst month of the year, according to a recent report from JD Power. The same thing, critics say, could easily happen whenever the homebuyer credit expires.

But supporters say that’s all the more reason to prolong it, at least for a few months. The economy is still shaky. Any housing recovery is fragile at best. Winter is typically a slow season in real estate. The timing, said Scott Dettmer, general manager of Dettmer Homes in Cottleville, is bad all around.

"You’re taking the single biggest impetus for home sales in at least three years, and you’re going to expire it at what is normally a bad time anyway?" he said. "I’d like to see it extended at least through the spring, to give a bridge over what are normally a tough few months."

At least 20 bills have been proposed in Congress to extend the plan, including one co-sponsored by Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid that would push it into June. Another bill — to extend the credit and make it $15,000 for all homebuyers — reportedly has 15 co-sponsors.

But that measure was stripped from the stimulus bill in February, and there seems to be a limited appetite for it now, as Congress wrestles with health care reform and other pricey legislation. Many observers don’t expect a resolution until the Nov. 30 deadline draws nearer.

And that will probably keep Paul Medler waiting.

He sold his home in Kirkwood in June to a first-time buyer who used the tax credit. It probably helped make the deal happen, Medler said. Now he’s renting, and waiting to find a good deal to buy, but prices in the neighborhoods where he’s looking still seem too high for this market.

Medler’s hoping the credit either gets extended to everybody — so he can use it — or ends in November as planned.

"After this stops I feel like we might have another dive in housing prices," he said.

And, at least in his case, that would be a good thing.

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